General Motors : Exuding Confidence

Wagoner's plan to reverse the sales slide with cool new car models makes complete sense from one perspective: The lineup needs a boost. Even with the generous rebates GM has offered from late 2001 through this winter, its U.S. market share slid 2.5 percentage points. Now that Wagoner is pulling back on incentives, the situation is deteriorating even faster. Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER ) estimates that GM's overall sales slid 8% in April as compared to a year earlier. And things will only get tougher if competitors like DaimlerChrysler (DCX ) follow through on talk of importing cheap, small cars from China. GM execs exude confidence about the new models they have queued up starting this year: the Pontiac Solstice sports car, the retro-styled HHR compact-utility vehicle, and, later, the all-new Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon large SUVs. Says GM Vice-Chairman and CFO John M. Devine: "We think we're coming on strong."But this is a company that sees the cavalry coming to its rescue with each new model year. True, GM managed to pull itself back from the brink of bankruptcy in the early '90s with a strong lineup of pickups and SUVs (and a huge lift from the economy). Recently, its revival of the Cadillac franchise, through cutting-edge design and masterful marketing, has been astounding. Even critics acknowledge that GM's new models are light years ahead of those they replace. But more often, GM's bold forecasts never pan out. Executives wrongly predicted a comeback in family sedans in the '80s, '90s, and as recently as last year. Meanwhile, they took a pass on hybrid gas-electric cars and blew a chance to get a jump on the hot crossover SUV segment with the failed Pontiac Aztek